History Lesson For GOP: An Unpopular Tax Cut May Not Save You In 2018

Joseph Thorndike, Forbes

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Excerpt:

As they headed into the 1948 election, Republicans were feeling optimistic. Truman, who was heading the Democratic ticket, was notably unpopular, and the GOP had just delivered to voters a much-appreciated break from their heavy wartime tax burdens. (The tax reduction actually polled quite well in the months leading up to the election.)

GOP Defeat

While voters seemed to like the tax cut, however, they didn’t seem to care very much for the party that gave it to them. Not only did Truman win reelection in 1948, but Republicans lost 75 seats in the House and nine in the Senate, demolishing their cherished majorities.

Two factors can explain the GOP defeat. First, voters were enthusiastic about additional tax cuts, but they wanted future reductions to be more progressive than the 1948 law. Also, in these early years of the Cold War, voters were inclined to support more spending on military aid and public diplomacy. Polls suggested that many people were willing to pay higher taxes to pay for these important spending priorities. ...