Yoav Limor, JNS.org
Image from article, with caption: Members of Hamas security forces carry a coffin containing the body of Palestinian engineering lecturer Fadi al-Batsh in the southern Gaza Strip on April 26, 2018.
Excerpt:
This week’s mortar fire on southern Israel is the gravest security escalation on the Israel-Gaza border since “Operation Protective Edge” in the summer of 2014, though Israeli defense officials believe that Israel and Hamas, which rules Gaza, can still avoid a full-fledged military conflict. They say that the choice of what happens next is in the hands of Hamas. ...
Hamas gambled that Israel would mount the obligatory measured response, and this would end the current round. But Israel mounted a large response instead, striking dozens of terror hubs and destroying a Hamas tunnel in southern Gaza. ...
Israeli defense officials debated the intensity of Israel’s response, but it was widely believed that decisive action was needed to make it clear to Hamas that a red line had been crossed.
From a public diplomacy standpoint, Israel placed responsibility for the escalation in the south on Hamas and Iran, which sponsors the terror organization and spurs it to action. Islamic Jihad was also condemned to a lesser degree, despite its direct involvement. Israel was careful and sought to avoid Palestinian casualties as much as possible. ...
Even if an escalation is avoided, this is hardly the end of the story. Gaza is on the brink of eruption for a variety of reasons, most notably the dire economic and humanitarian situation coupled with growing political frustration. Given Hamas’ failure to provide Gazans with any solutions, it can go on one of two paths: a ceasefire or war. Both options are still on the table.
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