32nd ASEAN Summit: Resilience And Innovation In Focus – Analysis

Rajaram Panda, eurasiareview.com

Image from article, with caption: Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong speaking at the 32nd ASEAN Summit.

Excerpt:

The 32nd Summit of Heads of State and Government from member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held in Singapore from 25 to 28 April 2018 to discuss regional and international issues successfully concluded. Though ASEAN consists of ten ASEAN Member States (AMS) in a region of diverse cultures and backgrounds, it shares a common interest in promoting peace, stability and security for the benefit of the peoples of the region. The event known as the 32nd ASEAN Summit, was a special event that Singapore showcased at Istana and Shangri-La Hotel to the world how the ten member states with diverse cultures and different forms of governments are united when regional issues are addressed. ...

China’s muscle-flexing and assertiveness on certain regional issues has created a sense of unease in many nations in the region. The South China Sea has emerged as a major flashpoint. This area of ocean space is believed to possess a huge quantity of precious raw materials and natural resources in the ocean bed. There are half a dozen countries which make sovereignty claims on this part of the sea that are within their exclusive economic zones. While Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, and Malaysia make sovereignty claims to areas of the sea contiguous to their land territory, China makes claims to the South China Sea in its entirety. In order to reinforce and legitimise its claims, it has started island building activities and slowly militarising too, sending fears to smaller nations of the region having stakes on parts of the ocean space. ...

Beijing remains undeterred and continues to reassert its rights over the South China Sea, making historical claims. With President Xi Jinping winning a second term in office and the fixed tenure clause being removed, he has the prospect for ruling China as long as he wants. This further emboldens Xi to consolidate his country’s claims over this area. ...

Notwithstanding China’s belligerence and assertive posture, confronting China may not be a good option than engaging China. How to keep ASEAN’s ties with China warm that once remained frosty can be a big challenge for Lee. While ASEAN has the support of the US, Japan, India and other nations that stand for respecting global rules of governance, Lee would be under considerable pressure from China and the US as they vie for political control of the region. Whether Lee can be successful to hedge, balance and manoeuvre between the US and China while keeping the interests of the ASEAN bloc as top priority can be a crucial test for him.

Beijing prefers to deal with countries involved in South China Sea issue bilaterally. China now fears that Singapore could try to “internationalise” the issue. The US, like others, wants the issue settled peacefully, in accordance with existing international rules and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Lee’s another challenge could be to make best efforts to forge unity vis-à-vis that of China as the latter is trying its best to create fissures within the ASEAN organisation.

In the past Beijing seemed to have succeeded to garner support from Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines for its position that the South China Sea disputes should be negotiated by the countries directly concerned. Though Philippines won a legal battle at The Hague court in its favour, there seemed to be a turnaround after Duterte came to power. However, by supporting Vietnam’s strong objection to China on the South China Sea issue, the US is contributed to prevent ASEAN disunity. Though Singapore itself is not a claimant to the South China Sea dispute, it has often come under Beijing’s displeasure as Singapore fights for the cause for ASEAN. Its responsibility now shall be greater than before to defend the cause of ASEAN as it is the chair in 2018. It would be diplomatic tight-rope for Singapore to argue before Beijing that it remains neutral between the US and China on the South China Sea dispute.

Though Singapore does not have any maritime claim on the area under dispute, it does support a “rules-based international order”. Such a stance is no different from the majority view of other nations, and that is maintaining the status quo international system. This also includes the implementation of the July 2016 international arbitration decision against China’s claims, which China has rejected. Singapore endorses the principle of protecting “freedom of navigation”, which also means freedom to undertake surveillance probes in China’s exclusive economic zone. For Singapore, it means freedom of commercial navigation, which helps the US to play out its public diplomacy [JB emphasis] but angers Beijing at the same time. ...