China and the last of the multilateralists

François Godement, ecfr.eu

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As the trade war between China and the United States heats up, Europeans should think hard about who they turn to for assistance

Excerpt:

China has largely ignored Western engagement and inducements – seeing this as evidence of the West’s weakness and decline – but has been forced to change tack under intense pressure from the Trump administration. China’s boasts about the superiority of its economic model have given way to a quest for like-minded partners.

China has also begun to behave more amicably towards Japan; paused efforts to probe its neighbours’ weaknesses in the South China Sea; and listened politely as Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Bin Mohamad denounced Beijing’s “new version of colonialism”. China has rediscovered the virtues of signing joint summit statements with the EU, and finally freed prominent activist Liu Xia, as Germany persistently requested. Beijing raves about “multilateralism” in international forums and has even considered providing humanitarian aid to refugees in the Middle East and Libya. One could call this the “Trump dividend”. ...

[W]hile the EU may not side with Trump, neither will it side with Beijing. On issues such as China’s unfair trade, sectoral subsidies, and technology theft, the European Commission is almost completely in agreement with the Trump administration – as President Jean-Claude Juncker stated to the visiting Chinese premier last July. China’s dictatorial political system and controlled economy bear no resemblance to the US, regardless of American leaders’ current shenanigans. And there is little indication that this will change. Although some China watchers have interpreted the slight renewal of Chinese public debate on liberal economics as a sign of open opposition to Xi, it is much more likely to be public diplomacy [JB emphasis] designed to ease pressure from the US-China trade war. In fact, Xi recently reassured his Chinese citizens that state enterprises remain paramount in his plans.

Nonetheless, Europe faces a dilemma. The Trump administration combines a comprehensive strategy for challenging China’s unique economic model with attacks on a range of other trade partners. Canada, Brazil, South Korea, the EU, and Japan have all borne the brunt of these attacks – none of which heed long-established international rules. ...